Figures from FirstGroup today revealed profits from its rail operations plunged more than 20% last year.
But they would have been far worse were it not for a handout from the Department for Transport because recession-hit passenger revenue numbers are not coming in on budget.
The news indicates the extent of the crisis on the railways.
I am not surprised. FGW has such a vast empire - at least they are keeping trains on the secondary routes and the Cotswold Line re-doubling scheme go-ahead for August this year, has been recent good news among the generally gloomy prospects for FGW.
The government's financial exposure to the rail industry could worsen amid predictions that a shortfall in fare sales could cost the taxpayer up to 」400m over the next two years.
The Department for Transport is obliged to cover a proportion of train operators' losses if their revenues are below target, with some of Britain's biggest commuter franchises among those entitled to taxpayer support.
According to analysis by stockbroker Blue Oar Securities, franchises could receive 」100m from the government this year under the terms of so-called "cap and collar" clauses. First Great Western (FGW), First Capital Connect (FCC) and National Express East Anglia are among the franchises that qualify for extra support from the government under the cap and collar provisions.
This could be followed by a further contribution of up to 」300m in 2010 if South West Trains wins a legal battle with the DfT and adds to the total required by FGW, FCC and National Express.
Douglas McNeill, a Blue Oar analyst, said the DfT faced a "substantial" financial commitment if passenger numbers continued their downward trajectory. "The number of journeys made by rail is going to fall below previous expectations and since the DfT is in effect underwriting some of these expectations it will be left footing a substantial bill."
Under the terms of cap and collar arrangements, the DfT covers 50% of any revenue shortfall created when a franchise finds its turnover between 2% and 6% below target. In the most pessimistic scenario for ministers, the government covers 80% of any shortfall that is greater than 6%. FirstGroup has admitted that its FGW and FCC franchises are receiving maximum revenue support.
Passenger growth is slowing at franchises that are tied into expensive contracts. National Express pledged 」1.4bn to the DfT for its seven-and-a-half-year east coast contract; Stagecoach has promised 」1.2bn for South West Trains; and FGW has committed to paying 」1.1bn. Four franchises struck at the height of the economic boom - National Express East Coast, Arriva Cross Country, London Midland and East Midland Trains - could receive financial support from 2011.
The government's rail budget for the next five years relies on growth in passengers and revenue. Analysts warn that if the downturn continues, it faces either cutting back investment or pouring more taxpayer money into the system.
A DfT spokesman declined to discuss the potential scale of any payments, saying: "The cap and collar provisions are commercially sensitive."
Apologies to you all for the mega delay this month, but we have been trying out new software and "playing"
with the new iPad version to see if we can perfect it.
Well we have to say that whilst...
Posted By class47 (0 Comments)
15th October 2010, 20:41
New Forum Posts
Hello All
I was pointed in this direction from another forum. I like anything that run on rails or operates from airfields. Wil put some photos up when I get home later.
Hi All,
My name is Pete Williams and I am a retired LT employee, I spent 40 years on LT getting paid to do my hobby.
I'm looking forward to reading your posts and learning from you all
I...
Mid to Late January Updates:
Just dropped by to say that I have just uploaded a few images of recent progress on the Forcett Coach, which just go to show that this was never going to be an easy...
If I haven稚 already - With very best wishes for the coming year, sorry if they are a little late !
Start of January 2012 UPDATES:
Since my last updates, in mid December, I have been posting images...
New Issues 49 and 49 xtra
Apologies to you all for the mega delay this month, but we have been trying out new software and "playing" with the new iPad version to see if we can perfect it. Well we have to say that whilst...
15th October 2010, 20:41